B2–C1 · CLF · CLF053

The most likely explanation is that [X]

A reusable frame from “Probability and prediction”. Discuss likelihood, risk, and uncertainty.

EN · EnglishThe most likely explanation is that [X].
DE · GermanDie wahrscheinlichste Erklärung ist, dass [X].

Try variations5 · more examples

  1. RU · Translation

    Наиболее вероятное объяснение — идентификатор изменился выше по потоку.

    EN · English

     The most likely explanation  is that  the identifier  changed upstream.

    DE · German

    Die wahrscheinlichste Erklärung  ist, dass  sich  die Kennung im Vorsystem  geändert  hat.

  2. RU · Translation

    Наиболее вероятное объяснение — правило применили до обновления маппинга.

    EN · English

     The most likely explanation  is that  the rule  was  applied before the mapping update.

    DE · German

    Die wahrscheinlichste Erklärung  ist, dass  die Regel vor dem Mapping-Update  angewendet  wurde.

  3. RU · Translation

    Наиболее вероятное объяснение — пользователи обходят лишний шаг.

    EN · English

     The most likely explanation  is that  users  are  bypassing the extra step.

    DE · German

    Die wahrscheinlichste Erklärung  ist, dass  Nutzer  den zusätzlichen Schritt  umgehen.

  4. RU · Translation

    Наиболее вероятное объяснение — в выборке есть дубликаты.

    EN · English

     The most likely explanation  is that  the sample  contains duplicate cases.

    DE · German

    Die wahrscheinlichste Erklärung  ist, dass  die Stichprobe  doppelte Fälle  enthält.

  5. RU · Translation

    Наиболее вероятное объяснение — узкое место ниже по потоку, а не в модели.

    EN · English

     The most likely explanation  is that  the bottleneck  is downstream, not in the model.

    DE · German

    Die wahrscheinlichste Erklärung  ist, dass  der Engpass  nachgelagert  liegt und nicht im Modell.

Use this move when you want to…

Reasoning move · Infer

Infer

What it does

State the currently best explanation without pretending certainty.

When to use it

Use it after considering alternatives and comparing their fit with the evidence.

Common mistake

Most likely should reflect evidence, not preference.

Pattern graph

Continue with nearby patterns

Related reasoning patterns2

Nearby structures let you perform the same reasoning move in a different form.

  1. [X] is consistent with [Y], but it could also mean [Z].Infer · same reasoning move · related logic
  2. [X] suggests that [Y], but it doesn't prove it.Infer · same reasoning move

Continue learning

Choose the next useful route.

Public corpus examples

See this reasoning move in real sentences

The source sentence contains a reviewed cue that points toward this frame. Treat it as a bridge for practice, not as an equivalence claim.

DEIch verstehe deinen Punkt, aber + Subjekt + VerbIch verstehe deinen Punkt, aber sie wird es wahrscheinlich nicht akzeptieren.ENExplain Problems and SolutionsIt appears that customer complaints have increased due to shipping delays.