B2–C1 · UNC · XTHUNC002

The evidence makes [X] more likely, but it does not rule out [Y]

A reusable frame from “Reasoning under uncertainty”. Separate evidence from assumptions, calibrate confidence, and identify what information would change the conclusion.

EN · EnglishThe evidence makes [X] more likely, but it does not rule out [Y].
DE · GermanDie Hinweise machen [X] wahrscheinlicher, schließen [Y] aber nicht aus.

Try variations2 · more examples

  1. RU · Translation

    Опрос делает непонимание более вероятным, но не исключает нехватку мотивации.

    EN · English

     The survey  makes  confusion more likely, but  it does not  rule out lack of motivation.

    DE · German

     Die Umfrage  macht  Verwirrung wahrscheinlicher,  schließt  fehlende Motivation aber nicht aus.

  2. RU · Translation

    Время появления проблемы усиливает подозрение на релиз, но не исключает изменение данных выше по потоку.

    EN · English

     The timing  makes  the deployment a stronger suspect, but  it does not  rule out an upstream data change.

    DE · German

     Der Zeitpunkt  macht  das Deployment zu einem stärkeren Verdacht,  schließt  eine vorgelagerte Datenänderung aber nicht aus.

Reasoning move · Calibrate

Calibrate

What it does

Update a hypothesis without pretending competing explanations have disappeared.

Pattern graph

Continue with nearby patterns

Related reasoning patterns4

Nearby structures let you perform the same reasoning move in a different form.

  1. What we know is [X]; what we are still assuming is [Y].Calibrate · same reasoning move · same study set
  2. I would revise this view if [X] turned out to be true.Calibrate · same reasoning move · same study set
  3. Our confidence should be lower because [X] is still unknown.Calibrate · same reasoning move · same study set
  4. The most useful next evidence would be [X], because it would distinguish [Y] from [Z].Calibrate · same reasoning move · same study set

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