B2–C1 · UNC · XTHUNC002
The evidence makes [X] more likely, but it does not rule out [Y]
A reusable frame from “Reasoning under uncertainty”. Separate evidence from assumptions, calibrate confidence, and identify what information would change the conclusion.
Explanation
Данные могут сдвинуть вероятность, не превращаясь в окончательное доказательство.
Structure
The evidence makes [X] more likely, but it does not rule out [Y].Die Hinweise machen [X] wahrscheinlicher, schließen [Y] aber nicht aus.03Try variations2 · more examples
- RU · Translation
Опрос делает непонимание более вероятным, но не исключает нехватку мотивации.
EN · EnglishThe survey makes confusion more likely, but it does not rule out lack of motivation.
DE · GermanDie Umfrage macht Verwirrung wahrscheinlicher, schließt fehlende Motivation aber nicht aus.
- RU · Translation
Время появления проблемы усиливает подозрение на релиз, но не исключает изменение данных выше по потоку.
EN · EnglishThe timing makes the deployment a stronger suspect, but it does not rule out an upstream data change.
DE · GermanDer Zeitpunkt macht das Deployment zu einem stärkeren Verdacht, schließt eine vorgelagerte Datenänderung aber nicht aus.
Reasoning move · Calibrate
Calibrate
Update a hypothesis without pretending competing explanations have disappeared.
Pattern graph
Continue with nearby patterns
Related reasoning patterns4
Nearby structures let you perform the same reasoning move in a different form.
- What we know is [X]; what we are still assuming is [Y].Calibrate · same reasoning move · same study set
- I would revise this view if [X] turned out to be true.Calibrate · same reasoning move · same study set
- Our confidence should be lower because [X] is still unknown.Calibrate · same reasoning move · same study set
- The most useful next evidence would be [X], because it would distinguish [Y] from [Z].Calibrate · same reasoning move · same study set