Metkagram · Pattern Routes · reason-under-uncertainty
Reason under uncertainty without pretending certainty
Separate facts from assumptions, update a hypothesis without erasing alternatives, define revision criteria and ask for evidence that actually discriminates between explanations.
After this pack: Make uncertainty inspectable: show what is known, how strongly the evidence shifts belief, what lowers confidence and which next evidence would be most informative.
For: B2 · C1 · professional English · decision making · AI tutor
Route
01 · Pattern
What we know is [X]; what we are still assuming is [Y].
Separate observed evidence from assumptions that still need validation.
Open canonical object02 · Pattern
The evidence makes [X] more likely, but it does not rule out [Y].
Let the evidence make one explanation more likely without pretending the alternative has disappeared.
Open canonical object03 · Pattern
I would revise this view if [X] turned out to be true.
State the observation that would make you revise the current view.
Open canonical object04 · Pattern
Our confidence should be lower because [X] is still unknown.
Lower confidence explicitly when an important variable is still unknown.
Open canonical object05 · Pattern
The most useful next evidence would be [X], because it would distinguish [Y] from [Z].
Choose the next evidence for its power to distinguish between competing explanations.
Open canonical object
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